Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0030…48c8 crypto 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$441 (+3%) realized +$441 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%73W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$562
7 days−$562
14 days−$553
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -38.4% -44.3% 14% 14% -54.7%
≤30d 287 +3.8% -6.0% 25% 24% -9.4%
≤90d 287 +3.8% -6.0% 25% 24% -9.4%
all 287 +3.8% -6.0% 25% 24% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 24% -9.4%
10% -15.0% 24% -18.1%
15% -23.2% 24% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$41 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses73 / 214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)287 / 287
History coverage20d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 287 Trades
no open positions (202 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$28 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$44 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$301 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $313 +$193 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $71 −$67 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $54 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $313 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $68 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 404 history records