Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x002d…2561 other 398 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 173d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48,940 (+4%) realized +$51,135 · open −$2,195
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate75%287W / 98L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$2,823per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$478est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 174d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$468
world 33% +$7,417
other 8% +$4,694
tech 5% +$1,486
sports 3% +$614
crypto 3% +$642
weather 1% −$8,100
economics 0% +$60
finance 0% +$219
culture 0% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 +22.1% +10.5% 83% 58% -7.4%
≤90d 175 +2.2% -7.5% 69% 26% -8.3%
all 385 +4.8% -5.2% 75% 24% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 24% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 15% -17.0%
15% -22.6% 11% -25.0%
20% -30.2% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$974) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$268 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$33,451
Realized+$51,135
Unrealized−$2,195
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses287 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$478
Open positions15
Markets (closed)385 / 398
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$2,823
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 62¢ $12,500 $15,562 +$3,062 (+24%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $12,500 $9,438 −$3,062 (-24%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 74¢ 94¢ $2,220 $2,805 +$585 (+26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,944 $1,999 +$55 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,762 $1,913 +$151 (+9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $850 $1,000 +$150 (+18%)
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? No 73¢ 95¢ $429 $556 +$127 (+30%)
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $54 $63 +$9 (+17%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 14¢ $70 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? No 65¢ 100¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+54%)
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes $180 $1 −$179 (-99%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes $12 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 23 $540 −$540 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $24,950 +$50 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $790 +$412 +52%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $67 +$111 +166%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $485 −$112 -23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $20 +$7 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $27,708 +$292 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $762 +$239 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Tucker Carlson arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $184 +$16 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,380 +$620 +45%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 31 $218 +$82 +38%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $761 −$761 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1,754 +$1,246 +71%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $351 −$351 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $21,347 +$3 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $906 +$853 +94%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $9,110 +$1,302 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17? May 22 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 17? May 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $740 +$10 +1%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $144 +$46 +32%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $993 +$299 +30%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $542 +$216 +40%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $513 +$316 +62%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 19 $170 −$170 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9,970 +$30 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $1,810 +$46 +2%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $867 +$686 +79%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $415 +$1,485 +358%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $448 +$51 +12%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $504 +$1,262 +250%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? May 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1,960 +$40 +2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 08 $1,643 +$347 +21%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $425 +$75 +18%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $425 +$75 +18%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $470 +$30 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $12,693 +$318 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? May 01 $87 +$2 +2%
Space FDV above $80M one day after launch? Apr 30 $108 +$12 +12%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $392 +$4 +1%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 29 $21 +$2 +9%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $196 −$133 -68%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Apr 27 $748 +$68 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $430 −$209 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 2h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 13¢ $66 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 13¢ $0 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 13¢ $1 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 13¢ $130 9d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 14¢ $344 9d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $202 10d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $90 10d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $210 10d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,000 10d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 10d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $225 10d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $65 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $24,950 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $165 17d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $12 17d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $4 17d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $1 17d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $11 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $177 18d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $42 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $239 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $57 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,450.69 · official $33,450.05 (match) · 3500 history records