Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0029…f1c2 sports 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$364 (-7%) realized −$362 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%377W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$303
14 days−$337
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$112
crypto 35% +$6
other 12% −$178
weather 4% −$65
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -3.8% -12.9% 61% 60% -31.9%
≤30d 208 -12.7% -21.0% 55% 50% -24.1%
≤90d 561 -4.9% -13.9% 67% 44% -15.2%
all 565 -5.2% -14.3% 67% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 44% -15.3%
10% -22.5% 24% -23.4%
15% -29.9% 19% -30.8%
20% -36.8% 13% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses377 / 188
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)565 / 569
History coverage93d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Otto Virtanen 75¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Guido Justo 61¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Buvaysar Gadamauri 62¢ 48¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $6 +$3 +52%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$50 +50%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $6 +$4 +65%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $5 +$3 +48%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 18 $6 +$3 +55%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $6 +$1 +24%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $6 +$3 +52%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $6 +$2 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 −$20 -73%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $6 +$3 +60%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $186 −$185 -99%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $6 +$5 +93%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $5 +$2 +27%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Jun 16 $6 +$1 +23%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $6 +$5 +90%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $6 +$3 +62%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Guido Justo 61¢ $6 8m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 62¢ $6 52m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $149 2h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 75¢ $6 2h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $6 2h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 56¢ $6 3h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 59¢ $6 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 4h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 71¢ $6 4h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Gustavo Heide 60¢ $6 4h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 79¢ $4 5h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 67¢ $5 6h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 80¢ $6 8h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Michele Ribecai 65¢ $6 8h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Henry Searle 64¢ $6 9h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 63¢ $6 22h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 56¢ $6 23h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $6 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 57¢ $7 25h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 57¢ $6 27h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 62¢ $6 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $186 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $27 29h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 56¢ $6 31h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 53¢ $6 44h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 77¢ $5 45h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 73¢ $6 45h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 78¢ $5 46h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 78¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.76 · official $26.86 (match) · 1512 history records