Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
00 0x0027…c760 politics 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$8
other 24% −$4
crypto 9% −$1
tech 7% −$1
sports 2% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$922) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage85d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,276 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? Jun 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 25 $1,342 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,244 $0 -0%
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP Jun 25 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 04 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd May 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $897 −$2 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $922 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $924 −$2 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $903 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $73 6m
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 12m
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $25 22m
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $20 40m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 49m
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $28 56m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 1h
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $881 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $306 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,188 1h
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? SELL No 100¢ $63 18h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,341 18h
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 18h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 18h
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 18h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 19h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $145 19h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 19h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL No 100¢ $933 19h
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $18 19h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP SELL No 100¢ $310 19h
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IP BUY No 100¢ $1,245 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $53 47d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 47d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $41 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 98¢ $10 47d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $9 47d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records