Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0023…bc30 crypto 297 markets active 2d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%187W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$16
14 days−$14
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -88.6% -89.7% 8% 8% -91.5%
≤30d 124 +12.3% +1.6% 60% 60% -7.6%
≤90d 297 +1.4% -8.2% 63% 48% -11.1%
all 297 +1.4% -8.2% 63% 48% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 48% -11.1%
10% -17.0% 44% -19.6%
15% -25.0% 41% -27.4%
20% -32.4% 37% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses187 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 625 history records