Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0022…c397 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$4
other 23% −$3
politics 14% −$1
sports 12% +$7
crypto 3% −$3
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 21 +26.5% +14.5% 29% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 72 +7.1% -3.1% 29% 6% -9.8%
all 81 +4.6% -5.4% 30% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 7% -9.9%
10% -14.4% 4% -18.5%
15% -22.7% 4% -26.4%
20% -30.3% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 57
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage525d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $81 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $12 −$3 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $12 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $72 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $45 −$2 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $24 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $5 $0 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +14%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $142 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $59 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $45 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $14 $0 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $27 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $14 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $18 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $9 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $6 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $12 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $15 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records