Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x0022…5f11 crypto 629 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35,801 (+75%) realized +$35,801 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%350W / 279L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,513
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +103.2% +83.9% 53% 53% -16.0%
≤30d 181 -5.8% -14.7% 41% 33% -25.8%
≤90d 629 +7.4% -2.8% 56% 49% +8.3%
all 629 +7.4% -2.8% 56% 49% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 49% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 46% -2.1%
15% -20.6% 41% -11.6%
20% -28.4% 32% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$40 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35,801
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses350 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)629 / 629
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 629 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $48 +$47 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $127 +$63 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $109 +$80 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $109 +$84 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $81 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $91 +$99 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $107 +$83 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $104 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $162 +$38 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$101 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $115 −$112 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $248 +$142 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $129 +$61 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $225 +$154 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $113 +$77 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $133 +$57 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $115 +$75 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $107 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $141 −$138 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $145 +$55 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $103 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $103 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $48 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$102 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $189 −$179 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $76 +$128 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$49 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $58 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records