trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Yes | 92¢ | 88¢ | $6,173 | $5,938 | −$235 (-4%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $4,675 | $4,920 | +$245 (+5%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 87¢ | 78¢ | $4,566 | $4,065 | −$501 (-11%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | $2,819 | $2,963 | +$144 (+5%) |
| Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $1,500 | $1,501 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? | Yes | 96¢ | 84¢ | $1,043 | $916 | −$127 (-12%) |
| Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $12 | $13 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? | Jun 12 | $3,474 | +$117 | +3% |
| Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1,510 | +$50 | +3% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? | Jun 11 | $5,191 | +$101 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 09 | $5,073 | +$533 | +10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| all | 4 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -5.2% | 0% | -4.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -14.3% | 0% | -13.9% |
| 15% | -22.6% | 0% | -22.2% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 0% | -29.8% |