Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0020…16b9 weather 772 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (182 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,629 (-8%) realized −$7,535 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate81%616W / 141L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day182.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$32
other 2% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (182 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -8.5% -17.2% 78% 1% -15.6%
≤30d 757 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 4% -10.9%
≤90d 757 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 4% -10.9%
all 757 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 4% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 2% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 2% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$42 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3,183
Realized−$7,535
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses616 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions35
Markets (closed)757 / 772
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day182.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $152 $154 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? No 87¢ 84¢ $155 $151 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $138 $135 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? No 97¢ 98¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 89¢ 88¢ $116 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? No 96¢ 98¢ $111 $114 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $112 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $107 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 93¢ 94¢ $101 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $99 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? No 95¢ 93¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? No 95¢ 92¢ $91 $88 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11? Jun 17 $49 −$54 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$9 -598%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 23? Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? Jun 17 $63 −$61 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 15? Jun 17 $17 −$64 -376%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10? Jun 17 $416 −$416 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 5? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 23? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $114 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 −$22 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $110 +$14 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $127 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $67 −$44 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 16 $186 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $98 −$15 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $212 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $105 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $88 +$11 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $251 +$116 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 19m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $98 38m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $33 40m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $27 41m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $117 42m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $26 43m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $24 45m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $33 45m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $98 49m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $15 49m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $98 51m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL No 76¢ $80 52m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $17 56m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $0 57m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $19 57m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $25 57m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $35 58m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $24 58m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $24 58m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $48 58m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,183.36 · official $3,183.36 (match) · 3500 history records