Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
00 0x001f…4c4a sports 1202 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$996 (+3%) realized +$1,006 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%775W / 379L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 169d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$827
other 24% +$2,402
crypto 12% +$776
finance 6% +$40
world 1% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +142.7% +119.6% 87% 87% +126.4%
≤30d 112 +32.1% +19.5% 66% 61% +44.7%
≤90d 302 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 57% +27.4%
all 1154 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 60% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 60% +4.2%
10% -15.8% 46% -5.8%
15% -24.0% 31% -14.9%
20% -31.4% 21% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$1,006
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses775 / 379
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1154 / 1202
History coverage169d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $70 $100 +$30 (+43%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $85 $56 −$29 (-34%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 28 $103 +$899 +875%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 28 $85 +$175 +207%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $51 +$157 +306%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AN Jun 24 $71 +$68 +95%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 23 $56 +$51 +91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 23 $123 +$302 +245%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $76 +$74 +98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 23 $304 +$246 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $511 +$296 +58%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$39 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $11 +$12 +110%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $51 +$175 +341%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $31 +$9 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $260 +$101 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $556 +$290 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 +$21 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $21 +$87 +423%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $204 +$212 +104%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $61 +$173 +281%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco en Jun 19 $7 +$2 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 −$23 -46%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$19 -19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$27 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$14 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 40m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 41m
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 87¢ $55 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-01 BUY 6¢ $30 31h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 59¢ $5 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 15¢ $10 35h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 30¢ $35 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 33¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 24¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 8¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $72 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 10¢ $103 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 4¢ $103 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 6¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 43¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 24¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $103 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 14¢ $151 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 69¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 64¢ $101 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 30¢ $20 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 13¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.12 · official $440.29 · 2919 history records