Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x001d…bf91 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$23
other 7% −$1
sports 2% −$9
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +4.5% -5.4% 30% 10% -7.0%
≤90d 28 -1.9% -11.3% 21% 4% -10.3%
all 39 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage615d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $20 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $8 +$3 +46%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $51 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $7 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 05 $14 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $14 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $288 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,444 −$13 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $2,224 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $2,408 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $8 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 35d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 35d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $58 36d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $58 36d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $10 37d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 40d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 40d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.76 · official $36.76 (match) · 339 history records