Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0019…ff59 crypto 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (339 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$466 (+3%) realized +$463 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%164W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day339.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days+$289
14 days−$300
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (339 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +7.9% -2.4% 58% 58% -1.2%
≤30d 304 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 42% -11.3%
≤90d 304 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 42% -11.3%
all 304 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 42% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover339.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 42% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 32% -19.8%
15% -26.3% 22% -27.5%
20% -33.6% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$463
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses164 / 140
Open positions1
Markets (closed)304 / 305
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day339.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 53¢ 60¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$30 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$31 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$23 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$71 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$106 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$33 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$35 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$18 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$41 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$20 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$33 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$29 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$37 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$73 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$35 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$23 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$31 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$54 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$47 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $30 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $28 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $23 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $37 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $37 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $35 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $36 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.29 · official $26.34 · 3500 history records