Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
00 0x0016…fe14 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,832 (+34%) realized +$10,754 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,231per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5,177
14 days+$8,577
30 days+$9,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$5,923
other 6% +$3,641
crypto 0% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.6% +15.5% 80% 80% +33.3%
≤30d 23 +17.2% +6.0% 70% 48% +19.4%
≤90d 23 +17.2% +6.0% 70% 48% +19.4%
all 23 +17.2% +6.0% 70% 48% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 48% +19.4%
10% -4.1% 48% +8.0%
15% -13.4% 30% -2.4%
20% -21.9% 30% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,440) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$623 vs −$58 · ×10.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.41 per $1 lost it wins $24.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$10,754
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,231
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 84¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+79%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $259 +$241 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $856 +$944 +110%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $393 +$107 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,422 +$378 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,440 +$360 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,008 +$792 +79%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5,161 +$2,755 +53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,600 +$3,400 +212%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $9,518 +$199 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $1 +$3 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $4,108 +$366 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $1 $0 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $380 +$129 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $2,968 +$286 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $3 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $4 −$2 -48%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $340 +$11 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $1,987 −$3 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 4h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 41h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $259 3d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $400 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 45¢ $366 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $17 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $360 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $65 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $47 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $393 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $651 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $359 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $15 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $21 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $376 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $278 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $14 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $80 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $400 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $400 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $16 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $40 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $212 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.74 · official $219.56 · 96 history records