Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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00 0x0015…d5b0 politics 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,912 (+1%) realized +$6,894 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate50%34W / 34L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$6,057per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$30,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% +$12,670
other 14% −$139
sports 3% −$179
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 19 +20.6% +9.1% 42% 21% -6.4%
≤90d 68 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 13% -5.4%
all 68 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 13% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 13% -5.4%
10% -15.9% 10% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 10% -22.7%
20% -31.5% 9% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$5,074) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$391 vs −$19 · ×20.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.53 per $1 lost it wins $20.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$30,111
Realized+$6,894
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses34 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions7
Markets (closed)68 / 77
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$6,057
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10,529 $10,522 −$7 (-0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $9,272 $9,272 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5,777 $5,774 −$3 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,455 $3,456 +$2 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other No 99¢ 99¢ $863 $866 +$2 (+0%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $117 $131 +$14 (+12%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $80 $90 +$10 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,958 +$5 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $10,706 −$20 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $149 −$147 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$11 -11%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20,715 +$3,085 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $6,867 −$49 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Pelle Dragsted be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 01 $1,742 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,458 +$9 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $30,550 +$6 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $348 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 23 $11 +$48 +458%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 23 $26 +$27 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 23 $26 +$32 +124%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,476 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $3,468 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $18,730 +$24 +0%
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t May 18 $3,497 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 17 $11,998 +$5,099 +42%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $7,181 −$17 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after May 17 $1,494 +$1 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $3,465 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3,472 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3,472 −$1 -0%
Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 15 $2,994 +$3 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $5,953 +$10 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 08 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 07 $3,512 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,472 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,472 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 06 $71 −$55 -77%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $6,360 −$10 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 05 $29,376 +$186 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $2,949 +$9 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 03 $4,955 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $3,565 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $4,785 +$168 +4%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $34 −$1 -4%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $3,451 +$3,454 +100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $5,074 +$22 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $6,864 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $17 +$3 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $7,593 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 55¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 39¢ $71 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9,319 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5,781 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $5,832 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,159 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3,456 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $4,917 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $3,444 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $149 6d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $117 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,155 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $4,915 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $562 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $987 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $987 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $918 7d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $1,757 8d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $1,292 8d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $2 8d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $92 9d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $3,426 9d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,111.16 · official $30,281.16 (match) · 3500 history records