Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x0014…ab28 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$19
other 27% +$36
sports 13% −$2
world 9% −$3
politics 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +16.8% +5.7% 43% 38% +14.3%
≤30d 49 +11.6% +0.9% 41% 37% +3.9%
≤90d 66 -5.8% -14.8% 36% 32% -6.5%
all 66 -5.8% -14.8% 36% 32% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 32% -6.5%
10% -23.0% 32% -15.4%
15% -30.4% 30% -23.6%
20% -37.2% 26% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)66 / 76
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 49¢ 90¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +415%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 27 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 09 $1 $0 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 0m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $3 14m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 14m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 15m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 8h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 8h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.19 · official $58.79 (match) · 134 history records