trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 19% | 19% | -56.2% |
| ≤30d | 21 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 19% | 19% | -56.2% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 19% | 19% | -56.2% |
| all | 28 | -35.1% | -41.2% | 14% | 14% | -57.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.2% | 14% | -57.4% |
| 10% | -46.9% | 14% | -61.5% |
| 15% | -52.0% | 14% | -65.2% |
| 20% | -56.7% | 14% | -68.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 15¢ | $100 | $126 | +$26 (+26%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 19¢ | $110 | $115 | +$5 (+5%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 32¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $60 | $59 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $49 | $48 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $47 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | $50 | $38 | −$12 (-23%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20 | $25 | +$5 (+24%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $21 | +$133 | +650% |
| Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? | Jun 23 | $123 | −$120 | -97% |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $31 | −$30 | -97% |
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $20 | +$75 | +365% |
| Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $41 | −$40 | -97% |
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$28 | +276% |
| Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 2? | Jun 18 | $2 | +$3 | +127% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 5? | Mar 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | Mar 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 3? | Mar 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? | Jan 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |