Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0013…3c30 crypto 1239 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,145 (-14%) realized −$7,024 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%282W / 898L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$850
14 days+$850
30 days+$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$5,776
world 24% −$1,346
politics 15% −$321
other 12% −$2,679
culture 2% −$395
economics 1% +$14
finance 1% −$89
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +21.2% +9.7% 38% 35% +29.4%
≤30d 91 -9.2% -17.9% 31% 27% +24.2%
≤90d 417 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 22% -3.9%
all 1180 -19.8% -27.4% 24% 21% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 21% -30.3%
10% -34.4% 18% -36.9%
15% -40.7% 16% -43.0%
20% -46.5% 14% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized−$7,024
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses282 / 898
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions52
Markets (closed)1180 / 1239
History coverage377d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 1180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-75%)
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-42%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $37 $5 −$31 (-86%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-80%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 23¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 448 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $70 +$24 +34%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $20 +$33 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +95%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 17 $13 −$4 -33%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 16 $7 +$11 +162%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$9 +81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +74%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$55 -88%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $255 +$427 +168%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$13 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $405 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$60 +573%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $88 +$275 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $151 +$120 +80%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +234%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $13 −$4 -28%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 14 $61 −$18 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$21 +86%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $232 −$16 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $129 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 82¢ $147 44m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 51m
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $28 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $20 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 2h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 2h
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL Yes 6¢ $13 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $46 2h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 13¢ $18 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 26h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 31h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 38h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.20 · official $548.22 (match) · 3083 history records