Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0013…52d5 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.8% -15.7% 88% 19% -19.9%
≤30d 16 -6.8% -15.7% 88% 19% -19.9%
≤90d 16 -6.8% -15.7% 88% 19% -19.9%
all 16 -6.8% -15.7% 88% 19% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 19% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 0% -27.6%
15% -31.1% 0% -34.6%
20% -37.9% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $4.90 · 36 history records