Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x000f…967d politics 11 markets active 20h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$80 (+4%) realized +$98 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$351
7 days−$321
14 days−$321
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +86.2% +68.5% 50% 50% -86.7%
≤30d 2 +86.2% +68.5% 50% 50% -86.7%
≤90d 5 +46.9% +33.0% 40% 40% -70.3%
all 5 +46.9% +33.0% 40% 40% -70.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.0% 40% -70.3%
10% +20.2% 40% -73.1%
15% +8.6% 40% -75.7%
20% -2.0% 40% -78.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$126 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage86d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $365 −$351 -96%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $11 +$30 +269%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $29 +$45 +157%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $32 −$23 -71%
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 31 $10 −$2 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $14 20h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $2 43h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 14¢ $59 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 14¢ $100 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 13¢ $49 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 14¢ $49 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 13¢ $49 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 81¢ $42 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $8 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 11¢ $22 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $52 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $38 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 21¢ $11 8d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 19¢ $38 8d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 13¢ $28 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $49 8d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $22 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $53 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 12¢ $466 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 11¢ $359 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 13¢ $191 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 19¢ $48 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 19¢ $38 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 26¢ $59 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 35¢ $79 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 35¢ $69 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 30¢ $48 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 30¢ $48 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 30¢ $48 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.41 (match) · 72 history records