Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

00
0x000d…758e
world · 193 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$756,270 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$723,035 · open +$27,037
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$536,489
Realized+$723,035
Unrealized+$27,037
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses141 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions45
Markets (closed)160 / 193
History coverage142d
Avg bet$28,515
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 45 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,577
7 days+$1,592
14 days+$13,408
30 days+$12,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $173,408 $200,047 +$26,639 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $126,295 $127,669 +$1,374 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $37,774 $35,980 −$1,794 (-5%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $18,463 $20,405 +$1,941 (+11%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $16,022 $17,369 +$1,347 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 83¢ 77¢ $17,466 $16,174 −$1,292 (-7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 84¢ 99¢ $12,761 $14,991 +$2,230 (+17%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 59¢ 88¢ $9,780 $14,526 +$4,747 (+49%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 92¢ 94¢ $13,434 $13,715 +$281 (+2%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $12,384 $13,038 +$654 (+5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $9,600 $9,760 +$160 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 97¢ 96¢ $9,058 $9,034 −$25 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $8,178 $8,198 +$21 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 69¢ 89¢ $5,011 $6,424 +$1,413 (+28%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 90¢ $4,701 $6,413 +$1,712 (+36%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 92¢ 77¢ $5,104 $4,291 −$812 (-16%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 77¢ 55¢ $4,847 $3,436 −$1,411 (-29%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $2,277 $2,193 −$84 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $2,441 $2,048 −$393 (-16%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $1,430 $1,612 +$181 (+13%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1,258 $1,174 −$84 (-7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $811 $1,067 +$256 (+32%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $690 $746 +$56 (+8%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $585 $709 +$124 (+21%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 92¢ 77¢ $827 $693 −$133 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jun 12 $3,802 −$3,802 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $6,021 +$197 +3%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $6,483 +$125 +2%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $793 +$24 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $5,168 +$3,288 +64%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $4,211 +$1,721 +41%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $1,770 +$136 +8%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $14,198 +$317 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $661 +$77 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $11,918 +$1,376 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $21,951 +$6,155 +28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $85,063 +$2,456 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63,699 +$1,435 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 25 $21,781 +$1,481 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $17,518 −$17,518 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $24,355 +$1,270 +5%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 22 $858 +$41 +5%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $4,109 +$491 +12%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $15,284 +$1,261 +8%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 20 $4,845 −$175 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $40,814 +$199 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 18 $3,150 +$950 +30%
Will Julia Letlow finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 18 $9,514 +$481 +5%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $9,143 +$965 +11%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 18 $12,317 +$683 +6%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $24,820 +$742 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $81,057 +$7,855 +10%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 13 $2,273 +$38 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $9,537 +$566 +6%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $4,095 +$843 +21%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $50,379 +$1,422 +3%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 06 $5,415 +$159 +3%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 03 $74 +$755 +1016%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 02 $19,053 −$18,879 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,349 +$83 +4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3,494 +$146 +4%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 01 $7,999 +$511 +6%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? May 01 $24,847 +$1,902 +8%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? May 01 $29,027 +$1,243 +4%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $30,825 +$1,147 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $73,298 +$3,094 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $275,940 +$33,819 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $5,027 +$321 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $55,853 +$8,863 +16%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $23,397 +$698 +3%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 24 $2,512 +$162 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $9,700 +$300 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $66,154 +$2,985 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 21 $2,679 −$1,784 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$145,270
politics 15% +$291,610
other 14% +$165,256
economics 14% +$138,997
sports 3% +$12,867
crypto 0% +$12
culture 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $53 15m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $99 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $7,054 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $344 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $8,714 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $9,600 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,367 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $6,379 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $8,999 20h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8,178 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $4,100 20h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 37¢ $12,695 23h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4,900 23h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $24,428 24h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,342 44h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,665 44h
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 44h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15,708 2d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 97¢ $4,042 3d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,045 3d
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $817 3d
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral SELL No 100¢ $461 3d
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles May SELL No 100¢ $718 3d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 98¢ $2,645 3d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 98¢ $91 4d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 98¢ $1,855 4d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 98¢ $1,111 4d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY No 97¢ $771 4d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 96¢ $1,978 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.0% -18.5% 75% 25% -4.4%
≤30d 28 -0.8% -10.3% 86% 29% -7.3%
≤90d 119 +23.9% +12.1% 87% 16% -5.6%
all 160 +43.3% +29.7% 88% 20% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.7% 20% +3.3%
10% +17.3% 12% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here +5.9% 9% -15.6%
20% -4.5% 8% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536,488.79 · official $536,488.10 (match) · 3500 history records