Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x000c…bcf3 other 46 markets active 13d ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13,177 (-4%) realized −$12,324 · open −$853
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,888per market
Trades / day111.6pace
Fees−$2,842est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$81,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$791
7 days−$15,644
14 days−$15,644
30 days−$15,644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$3,811
sports 36% −$11,147
tech 8% −$567
crypto 6% +$549
economics 2% −$1,520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -49.8% -54.6% 18% 12% -19.0%
≤30d 17 -49.8% -54.6% 18% 12% -19.0%
≤90d 17 -49.8% -54.6% 18% 12% -19.0%
all 17 -49.8% -54.6% 18% 12% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.6% 12% -19.0%
10% -58.9% 0% -26.8%
15% ← realistic here -62.9% 0% -33.8%
20% -66.5% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$4,876) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -42% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
53.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,208 vs −$1,805 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$81,703
Realized−$12,324
Unrealized−$853
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,842
Open positions32
Markets (closed)17 / 46
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$6,888
Trades / day111.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $17,179 $24,893 +$7,714 (+45%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11,392 $11,941 +$549 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $16,659 $11,617 −$5,043 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $3,985 $9,453 +$5,468 (+137%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $14,165 $8,617 −$5,548 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3,543 $3,577 +$33 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3,692 $3,329 −$363 (-10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $2,989 $3,148 +$159 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2,189 $1,099 −$1,090 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1,197 $970 −$227 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $347 $476 +$130 (+37%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $594 $389 −$204 (-34%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $224 $331 +$107 (+48%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $333 $310 −$22 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $388 $276 −$112 (-29%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 53¢ $174 $239 +$65 (+38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $394 $190 −$204 (-52%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1,107 $156 −$951 (-86%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $183 $136 −$47 (-26%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $171 $111 −$60 (-35%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $371 $93 −$278 (-75%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $783 $73 −$711 (-91%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $103 $63 −$39 (-38%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $96 $60 −$36 (-38%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $56 $47 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,556 −$660 -42%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $581 −$406 -70%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 25 $1,073 −$486 -45%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 25 $555 −$264 -48%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 25 $2,611 +$52 +2%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 25 $4,789 −$343 -7%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 25 $6,526 −$2,768 -42%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $4,876 −$2,112 -43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $61,111 +$6,466 +11%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 25 $712 −$692 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $47,479 −$15,501 -33%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 25 $14,476 +$3,104 +21%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 25 $1,534 −$881 -57%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,054 −$1,008 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $151 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,023 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $80 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,025 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,037 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 13d
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY Yes 0¢ $30 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $99 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $117 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $107 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $139 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $154 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81,703.15 · official $81,707.91 (match) · 3500 history records