Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x000b…d96c crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$31
other 24% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.7% -4.4% 82% 24% -11.9%
≤30d 17 +5.7% -4.4% 82% 24% -11.9%
≤90d 17 +5.7% -4.4% 82% 24% -11.9%
all 17 +5.7% -4.4% 82% 24% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 24% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 24% -20.4%
15% -21.9% 12% -28.1%
20% -29.6% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$6 +10%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $53 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$20 +66%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $22 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$4 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $12 −$1 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records