Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x000a…6cf7 sports 910 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$421 (+4%) realized +$390 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%547W / 342L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day90.6pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$69
14 days+$65
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 45% -8.2%
≤30d 889 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 46% -7.2%
≤90d 889 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 46% -7.2%
all 889 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 46% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 46% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -16.0%
15% -27.3% 27% -24.1%
20% -34.4% 20% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses547 / 342
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions21
Markets (closed)889 / 910
History coverage20d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day90.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 889 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 68¢ 99¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+46%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 78¢ 100¢ $34 $44 +$10 (+28%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Over 92¢ 100¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ 100¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Over 27¢ 72¢ $11 $30 +$19 (+165%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 61¢ 100¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+63%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ 76¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+28%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 21¢ 70¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+237%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 18¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Under 69¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 27¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 67¢ 75¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 65¢ 55¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Kansas City Royals 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 61¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 43¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Over 77¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) San Diego Padres 69¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 97¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 61¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 75¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 26¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Toronto Tempo 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $14 +$13 +92%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $3 +$4 +146%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 +$4 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $7 −$4 -57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $12 −$11 -90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$8 +53%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $62 −$4 -7%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $42 +$11 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $31 +$3 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +146%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $14 −$10 -70%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $91 +$58 +64%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $37 +$17 +47%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $91 +$2 +2%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 14 $28 +$28 +97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 24¢ $11 0m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 27¢ $6 10m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 92¢ $38 11m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 43¢ $2 12m
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 69¢ $1 14m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 36m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 36m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 36m
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 77¢ $1 40m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 27¢ $12 43m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 89¢ $3 49m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 65¢ $2 52m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 18¢ $1 57m
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 61¢ $1 57m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 61¢ $7 59m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 87¢ $2 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 18¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 28¢ $10 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $1 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 85¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $13 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $22 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 17¢ $1 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 28¢ $6 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $30 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 17¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.21 · official $297.69 · 2760 history records