Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0009…5497 sports 1178 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (190 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,185 (+5%) realized +$3,832 · open −$647
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%534W / 630L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day189.6pace
Fees−$820est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$12,390
other 10% +$322
crypto 0% +$30
world 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (190 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 679 -16.9% -24.8% 39% 38% +9.2%
≤30d 1164 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 45% +11.0%
≤90d 1164 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 45% +11.0%
all 1164 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 45% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover189.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 45% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 43% +0.4%
15% -27.1% 38% -9.3%
20% -34.3% 28% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$24 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized+$3,832
Unrealized−$647
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses534 / 630
Est. fees paid−$820
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1164 / 1178
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day189.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 31¢ 100¢ $60 $192 +$133 (+222%)
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Vaishnavi Adkar 75¢ 84¢ $126 $141 +$15 (+12%)
France leading at halftime? No 55¢ 100¢ $42 $76 +$34 (+82%)
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) Ito 47¢ 100¢ $25 $53 +$28 (+113%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ 63¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Iveta Dapkute 66¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-23%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$144 (-100%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 43¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 28¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Olimpia Milano 72¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Senegal leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 481 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +59%
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-05-31? Jun 16 $0 $0 +354%
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +270%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Bol: Miriam Bulgaru vs Iva Primorac Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Pridankina vs Oliynykova Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club Guabirá: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Navarro vs Volynets Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Sh Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. Modern SC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will St. Louis City SC vs. Austin FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Bol: Lea Boskovic vs Gabriela Ce Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC end in a dr Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar BUY Vaishnavi Adkar 77¢ $33 11m
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar BUY Vaishnavi Adkar 75¢ $94 12m
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Iveta Dapkute 66¢ $3 14m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $62 20m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $32 31m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $149 49m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $147 54m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $11 55m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 56m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 56m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 43¢ $144 57m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $136 57m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 15¢ $79 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $61 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $43 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $28 2h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 17¢ $7 2h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 72¢ $44 2h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 21¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $2 3h
Set Handicap: Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) BUY Majchrzak 21¢ $4 3h
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka BUY Lehecka 65¢ $73 3h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 71¢ $118 3h
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka BUY Lehecka 64¢ $5 3h
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka BUY Majchrzak 39¢ $2 3h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 56¢ $3 3h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 24¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.42 · official $836.97 (match) · 3500 history records