Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0006…2725 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+2%) realized +$137 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate88%95W / 13L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$4
other 38% +$155
crypto 9% −$17
tech 2% +$2
politics 1% −$1
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 37 -2.0% -11.3% 95% 3% -10.9%
all 108 -1.9% -11.3% 88% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -8.0%
10% -19.8% 2% -16.8%
15% -27.5% 1% -24.9%
20% -34.6% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses95 / 13
Open positions11
Markets (closed)108 / 119
History coverage249d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 78¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 65¢ 90¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 94¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 17? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Space FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 01 $15 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 7? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on March 6? Mar 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 8? Mar 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 07 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $39 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $18 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 15d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 23d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 32d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $15 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $14 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $16 35d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 14? BUY Down 23¢ $11 35d
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 49d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 70d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $14 77d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 77d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 77d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.44 · official $112.45 (match) · 315 history records