trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 40% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 44% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 28 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 43% | 4% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 4% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 4% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 4% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $46 | $46 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 21 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 19 | $16 | +$2 | +10% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $40 | +$1 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 23 | $44 | −$4 | -10% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 21 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 29 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | Dec 04 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Nov 21 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? | Nov 20 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 20 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 14 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 24 | $3 | +$1 | +44% |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Oct 24 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? | Oct 24 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th | Oct 23 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 05 | $40 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Aug 23 | $5 | $0 | +2% |