Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0000…bedd crypto 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,798 (+7%) realized +$14,798 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate80%502W / 129L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,885
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -47.1% -52.1% 50% 4% -69.3%
≤30d 162 -31.9% -38.4% 61% 12% -44.1%
≤90d 631 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 35% -12.7%
all 631 -0.3% -9.8% 80% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 35% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 19% -21.0%
15% -26.3% 15% -28.7%
20% -33.5% 12% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$321 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14,798
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses502 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 575
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$357
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 30 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 30 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 30 $236 −$236 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 30 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 30 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 30 $521 −$521 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 30 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 30 $559 −$559 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 30 $443 −$443 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 30 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $815 −$815 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $455 −$455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 30 $0 $0 -208%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 30 $390 −$390 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 30 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$5 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 30 $396 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 30 $559 −$559 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 30 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 30 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 30 $435 −$870 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 30 $576 −$576 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 30 $435 −$435 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 30 $226 −$226 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 30 $561 −$1,130 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 30 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 30 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 30 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 30 $531 −$531 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 30 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 30 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $373 −$373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$3 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 30 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 30 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 30 $282 −$282 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 30 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 30 $13 −$26 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 30 $569 −$569 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 30 $422 −$422 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 30 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 30 $519 −$519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $425 −$425 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 30 $620 −$620 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 30 $323 −$323 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $165 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $444 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $143 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $278 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $223 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $77 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records