Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x0000…0f9c crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$603 (-37%) realized −$603 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$696
other 12% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 21% -54.0%
≤30d 33 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 21% -54.0%
≤90d 33 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 21% -54.0%
all 33 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 21% -54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 21% -54.0%
10% -40.7% 21% -58.4%
15% -46.4% 15% -62.4%
20% -51.7% 15% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$36 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$603
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$47 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$28 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $94 −$89 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $204 −$196 -96%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 −$15 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $95 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $70 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$6 +22%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $47 −$43 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$5 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $63 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $64 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $44 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $23 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $114 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $22 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $56 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $55 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records